Box Office Predictions: January 18-21.

Posted by Sensei White Lotus On January 17, 2013 ADD COMMENTS

A common reaction to last week’s Golden Globes telecast.

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Zero Dark Takes On Newcomers
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January is off to hot start at the box office. Will that surge continue?

Weekend Predictions…

(Please note: All prediction are 4-Day predictions over the holiday weekend)

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1. Zero Dark Thirty - 20 Million.

2. Mama – 18.2 Million.

3. Broken City - 16 Million.

4. The Last Stand - 14 Million.

5. The Silver Linings Playbook - 12.5 Million.

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Analysis…

Last year, I was one of the few to call Contraband correctly taking the weekend.

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Mark Wahlberg does return in Broken City, but is without Kate Beckinsale (who’s very strong in January releases). That factor alone will make a weekend win difficult. Mama has considerable hype around it, but early reviews are mixed which points to more a House At The End Of The Street or The Possession-like opening (both coming in around 12-17 million three day).

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That leaves an opening for Zero Dark Thirty to repeat. Film has considerable positive buzz and could very well start a The Help-like box office run. As a drama, Help pulled two solid 20+ weekends out of the game, I see the same fit for Zero (especially over a 4 day holiday). Last week’s stunner (well not here, but to the rest of the predictors) A Haunted House is going to fall significantly out of the top five. Gangster Squad will take the “fall out of the top five” dirt nap.

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Which brings us to my favorite film opening, The Last Stand. Most predictors are not giving the film much of a chance to even break the 10 million mark this weekend. They will all be dead wrong. Arnold Schwarzenegger has a considerable built in audience and marketing has been fun. Film is even going to battle Broken City for most of the weekend. Both, however, will have to give up quite a chunk of action audiences to Zero Dark Thirty. Still, Stand will beat many (if not all) projections.

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The Silver Linings Playbook will also do very well off its theater expansion.

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All the best,

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Sensei White Lotus

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