Careful… Spy Kids… They’re hunting us.
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The Help rises. Conan fights kids.
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1. The Help
Prediction: 20 million. Wins if for no other reason: lack of challengers.
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2. Conan the Barbarian
Prediction: 17.2 million. Just feels like a other certain film…
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That film being Priest during the summer, although this is a more established brand. Nevertheless, as noted in our previous essay, marketing stunk and doesn’t have the interest seen in previous August sleeper action hits like The Expendables or District 9.
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There’s also lessons from the past. Lack of star power and a sub par film can really bust expectations. This was learned all too well when I Am Number Four opened lower (busting our record 18 week call streak calling the correct #1 opener) back in February. Sensei doesn’t look to get fooled again.
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3. Spy Kids 4: All The Time in the World
Prediction: 16 million. Not to be forgotten…
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Underestimating Kids feels like the mistake made from underestimating Smurfs. This one is a definite wild card if it can in bring the younger base. Will it? Most likely not, but will give Conan a few scares at first.
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4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Prediction: 15 million. Staying in form…
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The late summer blockbuster continues. Studio has to be very pleased with this one and could even rise (no pun intended) back into the #3 spot.
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5. Fright Night
Prediction: 13 million. Speaking of marketing…
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Conan’s marketing push failed to generate interest, this one’s flat
out misleading. With reports of the film being much funnier than
the marketing suggests, audiences will be confused and split on overall word of mouth.
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As we learned from 30 Minutes Or Less last week, any kind of toxic or misleading press leads to less than stellar openings. Add to this if this film’s not careful it will lose this spot to Smurfs which looks to notch around another 10 million.
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..Also Note:
..One Day will miss the top five opening around 6.2 million.
Until next time…
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Sensei White Lotus
“This is what I get for doing Machete...”
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Check out last week’s prediction results here…
Want more Sensei writings? Check out the updated essay archive here…
“We could go see Conan?”
“Whos in it?”
“That dude from Stargate.”
“Im embarrassed for the both of us.”
lolol jessiba alba zinger! lol. thanks i needed the laugh.
Glad you like the commentary, thanks for checking us out! Just wait until I unleash the verbal executions on critics in the weeks to come…