Box Office Fallout: Feb. 3-5.

Posted by Sensei White Lotus On February 6, 2012 7 COMMENTS

“Okay, so the new intern can seem a little creepy.” Master Iron Fist

Chronicle Wins Close, Giants Take Super Bowl

Ended up calling the correct order of finish 1-5. Then watched a real nail biter this weekend to see who would take the top spot. Overall, a fun weekend.

1. Chronicle

Prediction: 17 million. Actual: 22 Million. Congrats on the win…

Again, Sensei’s call clears out many prediction sites. The general feeling was to go with Woman In Black for the top spot. Not a bad call and it did make things interesting going into Super Bowl Sunday.

The problem was other predictors assumed younger female audiences would give Woman In Black an edge. Action audiences, as we’ve seen all January, are still more consistent right now. That gave this film the weekend win. Very pleased with how the analysis worked out on this one.

Sensei’s streak of calling the correct #1 film extends to 12 straight weeks.


2. Woman In Black

Prediction: 12 million. Actual: 20.8 Million. Very solid opening…

It’s rare, but sometimes films significantly beat Sensei’s calls. When films do pull this off, we offer mad respect. This film went with minimal marketing and purely name recognition (Daniel Radcliffe) and achieved a very profitable opening.  One must ask, can this type of strategy be repeated?

3. The Grey

Prediction: 9.5 million. Actual: 9.3 Million. Close. Very close…

Super Bowl was rough on holdovers, as predicted. Still, film remains very successful.

4. Big Miracle

Prediction: 9.1 million. Actual: 7.7 Million. Interesting strategy…

As predicted, family audiences took the plunge, but film wasn’t very impressive. This even despite the low screen count of 1700 screens.

5. Underworld Awakening

Prediction: 6 million. Actual: 5.5 Million. Another great call…

Keeping in line with those big Super Bowl weekend drops, Ms. Beckinsale was greatly affected by the gridiron classic. Another close prediction finish.

Bonus Calls: “Wait, the sports one?”

#. Super Bowl XLVI

Prediction: Patriots 34. Giants 24Actual: Giants 21, Pats 17.

The epic rematch of Super Bowl XLII was incredible to watch. In the end, Tom Brady and his offense’s final drive fell victim to New York’s incredible pass rush. Perhaps another rematch next year?

Another tough week to call awaits. Until then, predictors…

Sensei White Lotus

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Underworld Awakening images: © 2012 Sony PicturesThe Grey image © Open Road Films.

Woman In Black imageCBS Films. — Big Miracle image: © 2011 – Universal Pictures.

Super Bowl Trophy image courtesy of touchline.tv. — Chronicle images: © 20th Century Fox. All rights reserved.

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7 Responses so far.

  1. Troll! says:

    “Again, Sensei’s call clears out many prediction sites. The general feeling was to go with Woman In Black for the top spot.”

    “It’s rare, but sometimes films significantly beat Sensei’s calls.”

    Amazing how I only show up when a call is off. Before that, I’m quiet as a mouse on commenting…

  2. Steel Priest says:

    As an “other predictor” it was sad to see my reasoning go down in flames. But, hey, only missed by 1.2 million. Which sounds like a lot of money. And it is…until the IRS gets involved.

    So I guess that’s why he’s the Sensei.

    As far as superbowl preditions go: I predict that Brady is finished.

    After “big mouth Bunchen’s” on camera tirade against his teamates I suspect that nothing short of having her show up in person, with an apology to the entire team, will put Brady back in the team’s good graces. Espciially with the receiver corps.

    The measure of a man’s character is not found in his victories, but in his defeats.

    So says the Priest.

    And at 34 it looks like Brady still has much to learn.

    Back to movies: the P&A is over. Now teh word of mouth takes hold. And since I haven’t heard anything about Chronicle I begin to wonder about its staying power. Anything good coming out next week?

    • Sensei White Lotus says:

      “Safe House” could be fun, maybe another strong Denzel Washington action film. Outside of that, don’t really see the excitement for seeing Star Wars Episode One in 3D. Could be wrong though.

      • Steel Priest says:

        There’s always a group of fan-boys that will follow Star Wars wherever it may lead. They’re sort of like the old Grateful Dead “dead-heads”…only without the Tie-dye (they wear storm trooper costunes instead)

        But “Chronicle” has a fan-boy appeal all of its own as well.

        And since Denzel (as most “stars” today) has a limited appeal, I’m looking for “Chronicle to maintain the #1 spot.

        Further (as if this was a hard one to call) I predict that “The Avengers” will slaughter everythiung else at teh box office both on its opening weekend and the entire week following as well.

        Marvel has put a lot of effort and careful planning into this franchise and it’s about to pay off, big time.

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