Box Office Fallout: Dec.16-18.

Posted by Sensei White Lotus On December 19, 2011 5 COMMENTS

“After our film’s weak opening… This really is all we can afford…”Master Iron Fist

Sherlock Holmes Tops Weekend. Chipmunks Low.


This was easily the worst prediction weekend for Sensei in a long time. Both Sherlock Holmes 2 and Chipmunks vastly under-performed, all but destroying Sensei’s calls. Astonishingly, Sensei’s call streak streak continues.

1. Sherlock Holmes: A Game Of Shadows

Prediction: 68 million. Actual: 39.6 million.

Commentator “Skeptic” had this one right when he posted. “BUZZZZ! WRONG!,” on predictions last week. You are most correct.

Ouch. Despite being a high profile sequel and earning high audience ratings, film came in almost half of Sensei’s prediction.

Curious as to what happened? Maybe the villain casting in this one wasn’t as strong as Mark Strong in the first one?  Film will have to make up a lot of box office ground over the Christmas holiday to get a third installment.

Sensei’s streak of calling the correct #1 film extends to 5 straight weeks.

Of note:  Steel Preist defeated Sensei’s prediction this week with his own 24 million dollar prediction. Well done. You earned an epic victory, my friend.

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2. Alvin And The Chipmunks 3: Chip-Wrecked

Prediction: 36 million. Actual: 23.2 millionOuch again…

Sensei talked about how animated films were drastically under-performing across the board right now. The most notable being Happy Feet 2 which was also a animated franchise sequel. This Chipmunks fell right in line with that, vastly coming in under Chipmunks 2′s 48.8 million dollar opening. 

Film couldn’t even make Sensei’s low-ball projection.  Yes, it’s that bad for animation right now.

3. Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

Prediction: 15 million. Actual: 13.3 million. Batman did win…

Incredible number for this this roll-out on only 425 theaters ….. (300 IMAX). This one was given quite a boost off the addition …. of the The Dark Knight Rises prologue.  Is Tom Cruise back? ….. Or just the Batman boost?

4. New Year’s Eve

Prediction: 8.5 million. Actual: 7.3 million.  Holiday wishes indeed…

For what its worth, this was a solid call from Sensei who saw a small holiday boost coming this film’s way. Don’t expect much champagne to be opened over this however. Instead, Sensei might welcome a quick attack from Master Iron Fist’s interns.


5. Young Adult

Prediction: 6 million. Actual: #7 with 3.84 million. Some buzz…

Problem is it came too late to make a high opening. Still, film should continue to build that buzz next week and increase over the holiday frame.

The film’s legitimate Oscar sleeper buzz also remains intact.


Again, well done Steel Preist….

Sensei White Lotus

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Young Adult image: © © 2011 Paramount Pictures and Mercury Productions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol image: © 2011 Paramount Pictures.

Alvin And The Chipmunks: Chipwrecked photo by Courtesy Twentieth Century Fox.

© Alvin and The Chipmunks, The Chipettes and Characters TM and 2011 Bagdasarian Productions, LLC. All rights reserved.

Sherlock Holmes 2, New Year’s Eve images: © 2011-12 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc.

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5 Responses so far.

  1. [...] Shadows” and a third “Chipmunks” film non-stop most reduce than expected. Their total outcome all though broken Sensei’s prophecy calls. Not all was lost. Sensei’s strain in job a scold tip opener did extend to 5 true weeks. This [...]

  2. [...] and the third “Chipmunks” film opened much lower than expected. Their combined result all but destroyed Sensei’s prediction calls. Not all was lost. Sensei’s streak in calling the correct top opener did extend to five [...]

  3. [...] and the third “Chipmunks” film opened much lower than expected. Their combined result all but destroyed Sensei’s prediction calls. Not all was lost. Sensei’s streak in calling the correct top opener did extend to five [...]

  4. Steel Preist says:

    High praise from the Sensei. I thank him in all humbleness.

    Of course my prediction was less a matter of actual knowledge than it was of merely wishing.

    I mean, I had no clue as to what the competition would be like, so…yeah…lucky call. And not much else.

    Possessing a blind affection for the character of Sherlock Holmes, any endevour that promotes the classic character and introduces him to a new generation is deserving of my support.

    After all, Holmes is the precursor to just about every detective character known to man. Sort of the pre-Batman Batman (and by pre- we are talking 19th century….about a hundred years before Bob Kane’s creation). In fact, I seem to recall reading somewhere that Holmes was the inspiration for the Batman character.

    Still, I was (happily) off by about $16 mil.. Have to admit I was kinda pessimistic as, here in the real world, a lot of people I know as just broke. I mean, if it weren’t for Redbox and microwave popcorn they wouldn’t see any movies at all.

    That said, with great production values and Robert Downey (thank God he didn’t kill himself with drugs) you just knnda knew it was going to be a fun ride.

    And since I’m on a roll: my next prognostication (read: “guess”) is that “War Horse” will surprise. Slow start, but will build on word-of-mouth.

    (keep in mind I have no idea what I’m talking about. But since that doesn’t seem to stop hollywood eltists from doing same, I’m just going with the trend)

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